HoleyProfit's public study of the 4.236 / 6.8 ladder on Dow crashes and rallies since 1896.
Trend Development is a public study by HoleyProfit. It replays weekly Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) bars from 1896 and draws one Fibonacci extension ladder from each swing anchor: 1.0, 1.272, 1.618, 2.2, 2.618, 3.2, 3.6, 4.236, 6.8.
Crash studies measure from the pre-crash peak (anchor 0) to the first swing low (anchor 1) and extend that range down. Rally studies measure from a swing low and extend up. Each replay shows the dated news and the ladder level each move reached.
?event=<study id>.| Study | Years | Peak to low | Duration | Ladder level at the low |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The 1897 Depression | 1896-1899 | -31% | 11 months | 3.618 |
| The 1897 Anchor Crash | 1897-1898 | -22% | 8 months | 2.618 |
| 1899-1900 Correction | 1899-1900 | -23% | 17 months | 1.618 |
| 1901-1904 Full Cycle Study | 1901-1904 | -33% | 32 months | 3.272 |
| The 1906 SF Earthquake Crash | 1906-1907 | -26% | 14 months | 1.618 |
| 1907 Banker's Panic | 1906-1908 | -49% | 22 months | 2.2 |
| The 1914 War Panic | 1914-1915 | -37% | 4 months | 3.618 |
| 1916-1918 WWI-Era Crash | 1916-1918 | -40% | 13 months | 3.618 |
| 1920-1921 Depression | 1919-1921 | -47% | 22 months | 2.618 |
| The 1923 Correction | 1923-1924 | -34% | 7 months | 2.618 |
| 1924-1925 Bull Market Correction | 1925 | -9% | 2 months | 1.272 |
| 1926 March Break | 1926 | -16% | 3 months | 2.618 |
| The 1926 Florida Land Bust | 1926-1927 | -21% | 2 months | 3.618 |
| 1929 Black Tuesday | 1929-1932 | -89% | 34 months | 6.854 |
| 1937 Crash | 1937-1938 | -49% | 13 months | 4.236 |
| The 1940 War Scare | 1940 | -27% | 5 months | 3.618 |
| 1946-1949 Post-War Range | 1946-1949 | -29% | 37 months | 1.618 |
| The 1953 Recession | 1953-1954 | -13% | 8 months | 2.618 |
| 1957 Recession | 1957-1958 | -19% | 3 months | 1.618 |
| The 1960 Recession | 1960-1961 | -40% | 10 months | 3.618 |
| 1962 Flash Crash | 1961-1962 | -27% | 6 months | 3.6 |
| The 1966 Credit Crunch | 1966-1967 | -28% | 8 months | 3.618 |
| 1969-1970 Bear | 1968-1970 | -37% | 18 months | 4.236 |
| The 1973-1974 Oil Crisis | 1973-1974 | -46% | 23 months | 3.2 |
| 1984 Interest Rate Correction | 1983-1984 | -16% | 8 months | 2.618 |
| 1987 Black Monday | 1987 | -36% | 8 weeks | 4.236 |
| The 1990 Gulf War Recession | 1990-1991 | -22% | 3 months | 3.2 |
| 1997 Pre-Emptive Strike | 1997 | -9% | 4 weeks | 1.272 |
| 1998 LTCM Crisis | 1998 | -19% | 3 months | 1.618 |
| Dot-Com Bust | 2000-2002 | -38% | 33 months | 4.236 |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | 2007-2009 | -53% | 17 months | 4.236 |
| 2020 COVID Crash | Feb-Mar 2020 | -37% | 6 weeks | 4.236 |
| 2022 Inflation Bear | 2022-2023 | -22% | 9 months | 2.618 |
Historical study for education. Past price behaviour does not predict future results. Risk disclaimer.